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Niall Ferguson

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Disasters are inherently unpredictable, and pandemics, like earthquakes and financial crises, do not follow historical patterns that could help us anticipate them. When disaster strikes, we should be better prepared than past societies, armed with scientific knowledge. However, many developed countries mishandled their responses to a new pathogen from China. While poor leadership, particularly among populist rulers, is often blamed, the COVID-19 crisis revealed deeper issues within the administrative state and economic elites, who had become shortsighted over time. The questions arise: why were warnings from experts ignored for so long, and why did only some nations learn from past outbreaks like SARS and MERS? The reliance on 'the science' often proved to be misguided. Drawing from history, economics, and network science, this work serves as a global analysis of the pandemic year. Niall Ferguson examines the underlying pathologies that have plagued societies, from imperial arrogance to bureaucratic inefficiency and online divisions. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted a critical failure for many countries, emphasizing the need to learn from history to prevent a decline that could become irreversible.