Climate change, vulnerability and human mobility

AuszugThe mass exodus of people from Somalia to Kenya and Ethiopia in late 2010 and throughout 2011, spurred by the intertwined impacts of severe drought and continuing civil war, has provided a devastating backdrop for the main aim of this exploratory study: to understand the extent to which refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) – as “people of concern” to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) – have perceived, experienced and responded to climatic variability and long-term negative climatic change in the East and Horn of Africa. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007, 9.2.1, 9.4.4, 9.6.1), the East and Horn of Africa is projected to be one of the regions of the world most negatively affected by climate change. Environmental change in countries in the East and Horn of Africa already includes prolonged droughts, desertification, flash floods and land degradation, all of which will likely be exacerbated by climate change in the medium and long term. The interplay between climate change, conflicts, violence and refugee movement is considered to be particularly striking in this region. Notwithstanding the current crisis, the region has long been a major hub for UNHCR’s work, as around five million people, or 14 per cent of the total number of people of concern to UNHCR (asylum seekers, refugees, IDPs, returnees, stateless persons) worldwide, live here (UNHCR, 2010). UNHCR has also observed that environmental considerations are increasingly affecting the movement of refugees and IDPs in the East and Horn of Africa. In light of these considerations, this study, conducted by the United Nations University (UNU) in partnership with UNHCR, the London School of Economics (LSE) and the University of Bonn (Bonn University), sought to examine the personal experiences of people who have become refugees or IDPs in the East and Horn of Africa, to better understand: - how they perceived and managed the impact of climatic change and increased environmental stress in their areas of origin; - the ways in which growing environmental stressors interact with other factors affecting their lives and livelihoods; - how, and to what extent, climatic and environmental change has contributed to their vulnerability or resilience; - if, how and to what extent climatic change and environmental impacts have played a role in their decisions to move away from their homelands. It is hoped that the findings from this study will contribute to the growing body of empirical evidence on the links between climate change and human mobility (Henry et al. 2004; Perch et al. 2008; Jäger et al. 2009; Afifi and Jäger 2011; Warner et al. 2009 a and b; Foresight 2011), and will assist UNHCR, as the agency mandated to provide international protection to and assist those who flee their homes because of the threat of persecution and violence, to consider its future policy and response to people who may be compelled to move in the face of increasing environmental stress and unsustainability.