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Radical Uncertainty: Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers

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572 Seiten
21 Lesestunden

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Radical uncertainty explores situations where traditional probability and forecasting fail to provide clarity about future outcomes. It highlights how even experts can offer conflicting estimates, as seen in President Obama's decision-making regarding Osama bin Laden, or the unpredictability of technological advancements like smartphones. The book critiques the limitations of conventional forecasting methods, particularly in financial planning, where long-term predictions about interest rates and personal health remain highly uncertain and unreliable.