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Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment

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From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and co-author of Nudge comes a groundbreaking exploration of why people often make poor judgments and how to mitigate the impact of noise. Consider scenarios where two doctors provide different diagnoses for identical patients, or judges issue varying sentences for the same crime. Different food inspectors might rate indistinguishable restaurants differently, and customer complaint resolutions can vary based on who is handling them. Furthermore, the same professional may deliver different decisions based on the time of day or day of the week. These instances illustrate noise: the inconsistency in judgments that should be uniform. In this work, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony reveal how noise significantly contributes to errors across various fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, and more. Despite its prevalence, individuals and organizations often remain unaware of how randomness influences their judgments and actions. Drawing on recent research in psychology and behavioral economics, the authors explain the reasons behind human susceptibility to noise and propose strategies to address it, continuing the insightful exploration that characterized their previous bestsellers.