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Noise

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Daniel Kahneman

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From the bestselling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and co-author of Nudge comes a groundbreaking exploration of why people often make poor judgments and how to mitigate the impact of noise. Consider instances where two doctors provide different diagnoses for identical patients, or judges issue varying sentences for the same crime. Different food inspectors might rate indistinguishable restaurants differently, and customer complaint resolutions can vary based on who is handling them. Imagine the same professional making inconsistent decisions based on the time of day or day of the week. These scenarios illustrate noise: the variability in judgments that should be consistent. In this work, Daniel Kahneman, Cass R. Sunstein, and Olivier Sibony reveal how noise significantly contributes to errors across various fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, and food safety. Despite its prevalence, individuals and organizations often remain unaware of the influence of chance on their judgments and actions. Drawing on the latest psychology and behavioral economics research, this book explains the reasons behind human susceptibility to noise in judgment and offers strategies for addressing it. Through diligent and insightful research, it aims to illuminate the complexities of decision-making and improve the accuracy of judgments in everyday life.